2012 Election Night.

6:27pm: At Damien’s apartment here in Seattle. No bunker,one TV,a couple of laptops,beer. There’s a massive amount of discussion on various counties in FL with almost no context or greater meaning. What’s in play here are the usual suspects: OH,FL,IA,CO,NV,WI,VA. Interestingly,PA wasn’t in play this year – they’ve already projected Obama. Nate Silver on fivethreeeight has talked extensively about polls,statistics,and math in this election describing in detail how tonight will work. The rest is theater.

6:55pm: Jono says WI is called for Obama. Fox News is ahead of CNN in their map showing WI in blue. And behind Jono,apparently.

7:00pm: Speaking of theater,that’s a lot of deep,reverb-drenched toms for a Romney win of Utah.

7:07pm: Fox News’ Brit Hume is sounding quite defeated,talking about blame and failure around the Romney campaign. Maybe he’s been reading the right numbers.

7:12pm: From Nate Silver: "More than two-thirds of the vote has been reported in Virginia. At the moment,Mitt Romney leads President Obama by four percentage points,51 percent to 47 percent. But keep an eye on the Washington suburbs: Fairfax County,Loudoun County and Prince William County,where only a tenth of the vote has been reported so far."

Palin is on TV,somewhat quiet and struggling. She doensn’t look good. "An Obama win is catastrophic." Hasn’t changed a bit,which might go further in describing a Republican loss tonight.
7:18pm: I’ve heard that NY Times has called NH for Obama which is suprising,as that’s a key toss up this year… these things don’t get called till late.

7:20pm: Yep,NH went Obama,according to RCP. That’s the first real toss up to go down. With WI,that puts Obama at 251 with the usual suspects still in play.

7:27pm: Karl Rove on Fox News. He’s talking loss too.

7:39pm: From Nate Siler: "The differences between national polls,which often showed a very tight race for the popular vote,and polls of swing states,where President Obama usually maintained an advantage,were a source of intrigue this year." Go read his blog.


7:53pm: The joke among friends and around the office was the prediction of this being over at 8pm,in about 7 minutes. 

8:00pm: I might take more interest in the fallout of this election,something that I’ve normally neglected after the high burnout of following everything up to whatever Tuesday. 

8:13pm: 257 now,with NM. Leaving CO,NV,OH,FL,VA.

8:something: Oh right,Fox News projected Obama wins with an early OH projection.

8:37pm: Waiting for 74 and 502 in WA state.

9:07pm: From Nate Silver: "The votes counted so far in Ohio show an extraordinarily close race,with President Obama only about 1,000 ballots ahead of Mitt Romney as of 11:50 p.m. But the vast bulk of precincts that have yet to report their results in Ohio are in counties that have gone for Mr. Obama." That’s a direct response to Karl Rove whining on Fox News a few minutes ago about them calling the election "too early."

9:11pm: This election has been brought to you by body blows,mother load,the word "mandate",and Nate Silver.