Let me share some raw notes.
General assumptions: states that go RED: IA, OH, GA, AZ, NE, ME2.
|If these states go RED
PA + NC must, Or OH (unlikely)
Still need NV or NH
PA + NH + MI
FL or NC or OH
Need MI + NC + NV
Need OH + NH + MI + NC + NV
PA is a must, MI or OH
In theory could be offset by NC
but would still need MI or OH
NH or NV must
NV or NC must
if ME goes blue results in a tie. And if FL hasn’t been called, we wait around for a recount.
|If these states go BLUE
If MI + OH + FL are RED, still need NV or NH
Otherwise, it’s over
Still need PA + MI
If OH + FL are RED: NV or NH
If MI is RED: panic, need NC + (NV or NH)
PA (It’s not over yet.)
Still need MI or (NC + (NH or NV))
Can lose NH, but so what? Doesn’t make up for losing PA or MI.
OH (likely means win)
Still need PA, though.
W/O PA, would need MI + (NV or NC or NH)
can lose MI + FL + NC + NV + NH
FL or OH
interesting, but still need MI or NC
weird and interesting, but only 6 EV
As it stands right now, I’m giving Trump FL and OH, and Clinton CO. That means PA and MI are a must for Clinton, as well as NH or NV. This is not nearly as neat and clear as 2012 for Clinton.
What’s up for some good ol’ speculation is how much the relatively large amount of undecideds will fuck with the polls, and how much the low popularity of both candidates have driven voters to stay home or vote third party.
I’m going to save the flame thrower and vice for tomorrow; I’m listening to David Bowie’s Blackstar and just don’t have it in me tonight. Trump’s a mean fucker, and this is a mean country. DST has come, and dark doesn’t begin to cover it here in Seattle these days.